{
  "id": 516680,
  "title": "Projections of changes in maize and yield productivity",
  "url": "/competitions/the-future-crop-challenge/discussion/516680",
  "author_name": "",
  "post_date": "2024-07-03T09:54:01.886138300Z",
  "votes": 3,
  "comment_count": 2,
  "views": 0,
  "content": "<p>I've plotted the changes in maize and yield global productivity in all current submitted sets of predictions, against the mean productivity in 2020-2030. As you can see, the projections vary a lot between models so far:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F5e2c73da0098459e0860974ec5a8f063%2Ffuturecrop_maize_proj_anon.png?generation=1720000313092176&amp;alt=media\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F79cd1d6f3ae2ca5e14acaf1b87e5dd57%2Ffuturecrop_wheat_proj_anon.png?generation=1720000322894215&amp;alt=media\"></p>\n<p>The median projection is an approximately -10% decrease in maize productivity by end-of-century, and no change for wheat (but some models predict large positive or negative changes).</p>",
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": "2902509",
      "postDate": "07/03/2024 09:54:01",
      "content": "<p>I've plotted the changes in maize and yield global productivity in all current submitted sets of predictions, against the mean productivity in 2020-2030. As you can see, the projections vary a lot between models so far:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F5e2c73da0098459e0860974ec5a8f063%2Ffuturecrop_maize_proj_anon.png?generation=1720000313092176&amp;alt=media\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F79cd1d6f3ae2ca5e14acaf1b87e5dd57%2Ffuturecrop_wheat_proj_anon.png?generation=1720000322894215&amp;alt=media\"></p>\n<p>The median projection is an approximately -10% decrease in maize productivity by end-of-century, and no change for wheat (but some models predict large positive or negative changes).</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "I've plotted the changes in maize and yield global productivity in all current submitted sets of predictions, against the mean productivity in 2020-2030. As you can see, the projections vary a lot between models so far:\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F5e2c73da0098459e0860974ec5a8f063%2Ffuturecrop_maize_proj_anon.png?generation=1720000313092176&alt=media)\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F79cd1d6f3ae2ca5e14acaf1b87e5dd57%2Ffuturecrop_wheat_proj_anon.png?generation=1720000322894215&alt=media)\n\nThe median projection is an approximately -10% decrease in maize productivity by end-of-century, and no change for wheat (but some models predict large positive or negative changes).",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "2935771",
      "postDate": "07/25/2024 14:47:02",
      "content": "<p>Updated plots with 148 submissions:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2Fc1143b4b2f4757da564b18cebfba59ea%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_maizetrend.png?generation=1721918810849926&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F31e3c619296cb56f504d7316b65b4b75%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_wheattrend.png?generation=1721918821031072&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Updated plots with 148 submissions:\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2Fc1143b4b2f4757da564b18cebfba59ea%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_maizetrend.png?generation=1721918810849926&alt=media)\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F31e3c619296cb56f504d7316b65b4b75%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_wheattrend.png?generation=1721918821031072&alt=media)",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "2935775",
      "postDate": "07/25/2024 14:47:55",
      "content": "<p>An updated version of the main figure in the Overview, overlaid with the median and interquartile range of submissions so far!</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2Fff479af18a17ac3db37c5ba6b72d2b67%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_avgyield.png?generation=1721918874369807&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "An updated version of the main figure in the Overview, overlaid with the median and interquartile range of submissions so far!\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2Fff479af18a17ac3db37c5ba6b72d2b67%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_avgyield.png?generation=1721918874369807&alt=media)",
      "votes": null
    }
  ],
  "comments": [
    {
      "id": 2935771,
      "author_name": "lilybellesweet",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "07/25/2024 14:47:02",
      "content": "<p>Updated plots with 148 submissions:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2Fc1143b4b2f4757da564b18cebfba59ea%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_maizetrend.png?generation=1721918810849926&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F31e3c619296cb56f504d7316b65b4b75%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_wheattrend.png?generation=1721918821031072&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 2935775,
      "author_name": "lilybellesweet",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "07/25/2024 14:47:55",
      "content": "<p>An updated version of the main figure in the Overview, overlaid with the median and interquartile range of submissions so far!</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2Fff479af18a17ac3db37c5ba6b72d2b67%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_avgyield.png?generation=1721918874369807&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    }
  ],
  "raw_markdown_by_id": {
    "2902509": "I've plotted the changes in maize and yield global productivity in all current submitted sets of predictions, against the mean productivity in 2020-2030. As you can see, the projections vary a lot between models so far:\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F5e2c73da0098459e0860974ec5a8f063%2Ffuturecrop_maize_proj_anon.png?generation=1720000313092176&alt=media)\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F79cd1d6f3ae2ca5e14acaf1b87e5dd57%2Ffuturecrop_wheat_proj_anon.png?generation=1720000322894215&alt=media)\n\nThe median projection is an approximately -10% decrease in maize productivity by end-of-century, and no change for wheat (but some models predict large positive or negative changes).",
    "2935771": "Updated plots with 148 submissions:\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2Fc1143b4b2f4757da564b18cebfba59ea%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_maizetrend.png?generation=1721918810849926&alt=media)\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2F31e3c619296cb56f504d7316b65b4b75%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_wheattrend.png?generation=1721918821031072&alt=media)",
    "2935775": "An updated version of the main figure in the Overview, overlaid with the median and interquartile range of submissions so far!\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F18516286%2Fff479af18a17ac3db37c5ba6b72d2b67%2Ffuturecrop_25thjul_avgyield.png?generation=1721918874369807&alt=media)"
  },
  "source": "meta"
}