{
  "id": 187127,
  "title": "my confidence for a predicted person maintains almost the same throughout the weeks",
  "url": "/competitions/osic-pulmonary-fibrosis-progression/discussion/187127",
  "author_name": "",
  "post_date": "2020-09-27T16:24:35.474371500Z",
  "votes": 1,
  "comment_count": 1,
  "views": 0,
  "content": "<p>hi everyone, I check my submission and find out the confidence figure I predicited do not go bigger with the time as I supposed, is it reasonable?</p>",
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": "1029302",
      "postDate": "09/27/2020 16:24:35",
      "content": "<p>hi everyone, I check my submission and find out the confidence figure I predicited do not go bigger with the time as I supposed, is it reasonable?</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "hi everyone, I check my submission and find out the confidence figure I predicited do not go bigger with the time as I supposed, is it reasonable?",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1029388",
      "postDate": "09/27/2020 17:49:02",
      "content": "<p>That does not sound entirely reasonable to me, but it's hard to say how large the effect of time vs. other factors should be.</p>\n<p>What does your cross-validation say? Does your mean absolute error go up the further you predict into the future? If strongly so, that might give an idea for model improvement.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "That does not sound entirely reasonable to me, but it's hard to say how large the effect of time vs. other factors should be.\n\nWhat does your cross-validation say? Does your mean absolute error go up the further you predict into the future? If strongly so, that might give an idea for model improvement.",
      "votes": null
    }
  ],
  "comments": [
    {
      "id": 1029388,
      "author_name": "bjoernholzhauer",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "09/27/2020 17:49:02",
      "content": "<p>That does not sound entirely reasonable to me, but it's hard to say how large the effect of time vs. other factors should be.</p>\n<p>What does your cross-validation say? Does your mean absolute error go up the further you predict into the future? If strongly so, that might give an idea for model improvement.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    }
  ],
  "raw_markdown_by_id": {
    "1029302": "hi everyone, I check my submission and find out the confidence figure I predicited do not go bigger with the time as I supposed, is it reasonable?",
    "1029388": "That does not sound entirely reasonable to me, but it's hard to say how large the effect of time vs. other factors should be.\n\nWhat does your cross-validation say? Does your mean absolute error go up the further you predict into the future? If strongly so, that might give an idea for model improvement."
  },
  "source": "meta"
}