{"metadata":{"kernelspec":{"language":"python","display_name":"Python 3","name":"python3"},"language_info":{"pygments_lexer":"ipython3","nbconvert_exporter":"python","version":"3.6.4","file_extension":".py","codemirror_mode":{"name":"ipython","version":3},"name":"python","mimetype":"text/x-python"}},"nbformat_minor":4,"nbformat":4,"cells":[{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"# Exploring Alternate Outcomes WIth Punt Pressure & HAVOC\n\nIn this notebook we explore the potential advantages, or disadvantages of applying pressure. \n\nHere we can build a few models to predict certain variables like punt distance, hang time, return yards and epa by adding in situaitonal variables like: yardline, yards to go, time remaining in the game, reminaining timeouts, win probability and other factors. This will help standardize each punt play with an expected value, based on these variables. This standardization will help us focus in on other factors of interest, and determine if they do have an impact on performance.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"# The Punters Kick Length","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Kick Length Over Expected - Total Number of Rushers","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: The results came back inconclusive about whether the number of rushers impact punt distance.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Kick Length Over Expected - Total Expected Pre-snap HAVOC","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: The results came back inconclusive about whether rxpected HAVOC impacts punt distance - however, it was close and leaning in the direction of actually reducing punt distance.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Kick Length Over Expected - The Actual Maximum HAVOC Generated","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: Generating a high HAVOC on the play is likely to lead to shorter punt distances than expected.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"# The Punters Hang Time","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Hang Time Over Expected - Total Number of Rushers","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: More rushers did seem to show a reduction in hang time.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Hang Time Over Expected - Total Expected Pre-Snap HAVOC","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: Adding more expected HAVOC did seem to impact hang time - by reducing it.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Hang Time Over Expected - The Actual Maximum HAVOC Generated","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: The actual HAVOC generated did significantly decrease the hang time of the punt.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"# Punt Return Yardage","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Punt Return Yards Over Expected - Total Number Of Rushers","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: Number of total rushers had no impact on punt return yards - good or bad.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Punt Return Yards Over Expected - Total Expected Pre-Snap HAVOC","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: The amount of expected pre-snap HAVOC had no impact on punt return yards - good or bad.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Punt Return Yards Over Expected - The Actual Maximum HAVOC Generated","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: The maximum HAVOC generated had no impact on punt return yards - good or bad.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"# EPA Of The Play","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Expected Points Added Over Expected - Total Number Of Rushers","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: The total number of rushers had no impact on EPA - good or bad.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Expected Points Added Over Expected - Total Expected Pre-Snap HAVOC","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: Pre-snap HAVOC had no impact on EPA - good or bad.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"## Expected Points Added Over Expected - The Actual Maximum HAVOC Generated","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: The actual HAVOC generated decreased EPA, as HAVOC increased - this is a good thing for the return team.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"# Penalties - Roughing The Kicker & Running Into The Kicker","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: There aren't many samples with penalties to do analysis, but here I point out how uncommon roughing the kicker and running into the kicker actually are. Roughing the kicker was never called in 2018-2020 on punt plays, and running into the kicker happened less frequently than punt plays.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"# Fake Punts","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":" Analysis: PFF never supplied rusher data for fake punts - so we cant see how many rushers there were, or HAVOC. However, it is interesting to see how successful these fakes are.","metadata":{}},{"cell_type":"markdown","source":"-------------------------------------------------------------\n## More 2022 Big Data Bowl Content\n\n### [ ⭐ HAVOC: Decoding the Punt Rush ⭐ ](https://www.kaggle.com/jdruzzi/havoc-decoding-the-punt-rush)\n\n- [Quantifying Punt Rush Ability with HAVOC](https://www.kaggle.com/jdruzzi/quantifying-punt-rush-ability-with-havoc)\n\n- [Extended: How to Improve HAVOC & Block Punts 📝](https://www.kaggle.com/jdruzzi/extended-how-to-improve-havoc-block-punts)\n\n- [Alternate Outcomes WIth Punt Pressure & HAVOC](https://www.kaggle.com/jdruzzi/alternate-outcomes-with-punt-pressure-havoc)\n\n\n#### Alternative Punt / Punt Rush\n\n- [Evaluating Punt/Punt Rush Units with Convex Hulls](https://www.kaggle.com/jdruzzi/evaluate-punt-punt-return-units-with-convex-hulls)\n\n#### Punt Protection\n\n- [Estimating Punt Protection Assignments](https://www.kaggle.com/jdruzzi/estimating-punt-protection-blocking-assignments)\n\n#### Misc / Additional Data\n- [Generating Detailed Punt Positions](https://www.kaggle.com/jdruzzi/generating-detailed-punt-positions)\n\n- [Combine, Snap Counts, & Left Footed Kicker Data](https://www.kaggle.com/jdruzzi/combine-snap-counts-left-footed-kicker-data)\n\n------------------------------------------------------------\n#### Socials\n- [Twitter](https://twitter.com/j_druzzi)\n- [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/joe-andruzzi-27b3a7149/)\n\n------------------------------------------------------------","metadata":{}}]}