{
  "id": 578717,
  "title": "May12 update analysis ",
  "url": "/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/578717",
  "author_name": "",
  "post_date": "2025-05-12T19:11:26.397024500Z",
  "votes": 17,
  "comment_count": 4,
  "views": 0,
  "content": "<p>Hello all,</p>\n<p>We have a leaderboard update as on date and the figure below delves into the regions of interest, between this update and the leaderboard update from Feb-25 to Apr-25 as well.</p>\n<h2>LB update - May versus April</h2>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fad092878ce3950247cc1975aa3783070%2FU1.png?generation=1747076376488250&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<h2>LB update - May versus March</h2>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fd4226af5a99fc2befa77ef5f1799fdb1%2FU2.png?generation=1747076413239641&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<h2>LB update - May versus February</h2>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fa56b820c63d46145516e0ff7a7a281bb%2FU3.png?generation=1747076454899757&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<p>Past update discussions are placed here-</p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/572179\" target=\"_blank\">April</a></li>\n<li><a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/567316\" target=\"_blank\">March</a> </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/562435\" target=\"_blank\">Feb</a></li>\n</ul>\n<p>We have a moderate level of churn across updates, especially considering the recent developments in the stock markets driven by Government policy actions. </p>\n<h2>LB update - May versus April</h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Region label</th>\n<th>Description</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>R1</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the top 10% participants in the competition that remained stable across the 2 updates. This region is quick thick, indicating good stability! Congratulations to these participants for the stable performance</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R2</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the participants falling off the perch in this update from a top 10% public LB position in the previous update <br> * This is one of the key areas to consider in forecasting competitions! <br> * This region is moderately dense, illustrating that a few of the top 10% scorers in the previous LB update have fallen off the perch here!</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R3</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the participants rising in the private leaderboard by beating the churn! Congratulations for the performance and hope for the best! <br> * This region is also moderately dense, with a few participants rising through, akin to the fallers in region R2</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R4</td>\n<td>* This region is similar to R2, but occurs outside of the medal zone and illustrates a fall off the perch in the private leaderboard</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<h3>Analysis of the top 10% teams for stability</h3>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Medal zone label</th>\n<th>Last rank</th>\n<th>Comments</th>\n<th>Stability Ratio</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Gold medal</td>\n<td>17</td>\n<td>* Stable teams =   17 <br> * Entering from below =  0</td>\n<td>17/ 17 = 1.00</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Silver medal</td>\n<td>187</td>\n<td>* Stable teams = 142 <br> * Entering from below = 27 <br> * Entering from above = 0</td>\n<td>142 / 170 = 83.53%</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bronze medal</td>\n<td>375</td>\n<td>* Stable teams = 82  <br> * Entering from below =  93 <br> * Entering from above = 13</td>\n<td>82 / 188 = 43.62%</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<h2>Other adjutant observations</h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Observation</th>\n<th>Previous update</th>\n<th>Current update</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest upward movement across the leaderboards - overall</td>\n<td>2118</td>\n<td>1536</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest downward movement across the leaderboards - overall</td>\n<td>462</td>\n<td>3016</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest upward movement across the leaderboards in R1 region</td>\n<td>245</td>\n<td>148</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest downward movement across the leaderboards and finishing in R1</td>\n<td>65</td>\n<td>215</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<p><br>Finally, wishing you the best for the future updates, happy learning and best regards! For those in R2, please note that we have a number of updates remaining and you could still make it across the 2 months remaining!</p>\n<p>All the best!</p>\n<p>Regards,<br>\nRavi Ramakrishnan</p>",
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": "3200612",
      "postDate": "05/12/2025 19:11:26",
      "content": "<p>Hello all,</p>\n<p>We have a leaderboard update as on date and the figure below delves into the regions of interest, between this update and the leaderboard update from Feb-25 to Apr-25 as well.</p>\n<h2>LB update - May versus April</h2>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fad092878ce3950247cc1975aa3783070%2FU1.png?generation=1747076376488250&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<h2>LB update - May versus March</h2>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fd4226af5a99fc2befa77ef5f1799fdb1%2FU2.png?generation=1747076413239641&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<h2>LB update - May versus February</h2>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fa56b820c63d46145516e0ff7a7a281bb%2FU3.png?generation=1747076454899757&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<p>Past update discussions are placed here-</p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/572179\" target=\"_blank\">April</a></li>\n<li><a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/567316\" target=\"_blank\">March</a> </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/562435\" target=\"_blank\">Feb</a></li>\n</ul>\n<p>We have a moderate level of churn across updates, especially considering the recent developments in the stock markets driven by Government policy actions. </p>\n<h2>LB update - May versus April</h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Region label</th>\n<th>Description</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>R1</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the top 10% participants in the competition that remained stable across the 2 updates. This region is quick thick, indicating good stability! Congratulations to these participants for the stable performance</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R2</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the participants falling off the perch in this update from a top 10% public LB position in the previous update <br> * This is one of the key areas to consider in forecasting competitions! <br> * This region is moderately dense, illustrating that a few of the top 10% scorers in the previous LB update have fallen off the perch here!</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R3</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the participants rising in the private leaderboard by beating the churn! Congratulations for the performance and hope for the best! <br> * This region is also moderately dense, with a few participants rising through, akin to the fallers in region R2</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R4</td>\n<td>* This region is similar to R2, but occurs outside of the medal zone and illustrates a fall off the perch in the private leaderboard</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<h3>Analysis of the top 10% teams for stability</h3>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Medal zone label</th>\n<th>Last rank</th>\n<th>Comments</th>\n<th>Stability Ratio</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Gold medal</td>\n<td>17</td>\n<td>* Stable teams =   17 <br> * Entering from below =  0</td>\n<td>17/ 17 = 1.00</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Silver medal</td>\n<td>187</td>\n<td>* Stable teams = 142 <br> * Entering from below = 27 <br> * Entering from above = 0</td>\n<td>142 / 170 = 83.53%</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bronze medal</td>\n<td>375</td>\n<td>* Stable teams = 82  <br> * Entering from below =  93 <br> * Entering from above = 13</td>\n<td>82 / 188 = 43.62%</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<h2>Other adjutant observations</h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Observation</th>\n<th>Previous update</th>\n<th>Current update</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest upward movement across the leaderboards - overall</td>\n<td>2118</td>\n<td>1536</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest downward movement across the leaderboards - overall</td>\n<td>462</td>\n<td>3016</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest upward movement across the leaderboards in R1 region</td>\n<td>245</td>\n<td>148</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest downward movement across the leaderboards and finishing in R1</td>\n<td>65</td>\n<td>215</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<p><br>Finally, wishing you the best for the future updates, happy learning and best regards! For those in R2, please note that we have a number of updates remaining and you could still make it across the 2 months remaining!</p>\n<p>All the best!</p>\n<p>Regards,<br>\nRavi Ramakrishnan</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Hello all,\n\nWe have a leaderboard update as on date and the figure below delves into the regions of interest, between this update and the leaderboard update from Feb-25 to Apr-25 as well.\n\n## LB update - May versus April\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fad092878ce3950247cc1975aa3783070%2FU1.png?generation=1747076376488250&alt=media)\n\n## LB update - May versus March\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fd4226af5a99fc2befa77ef5f1799fdb1%2FU2.png?generation=1747076413239641&alt=media)\n\n## LB update - May versus February\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fa56b820c63d46145516e0ff7a7a281bb%2FU3.png?generation=1747076454899757&alt=media)\n\nPast update discussions are placed here-\n- [April](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/572179)\n- [March](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/567316) \n- [Feb](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/562435)\n\nWe have a moderate level of churn across updates, especially considering the recent developments in the stock markets driven by Government policy actions. \n\n## LB update - May versus April\n\n| Region label | Description |\n| --- | --- | \n| R1 |  * This region illustrates the top 10% participants in the competition that remained stable across the 2 updates. This region is quick thick, indicating good stability! Congratulations to these participants for the stable performance |\n| R2 |  * This region illustrates the participants falling off the perch in this update from a top 10% public LB position in the previous update <br> * This is one of the key areas to consider in forecasting competitions! <br> * This region is moderately dense, illustrating that a few of the top 10% scorers in the previous LB update have fallen off the perch here! |\n| R3 |  * This region illustrates the participants rising in the private leaderboard by beating the churn! Congratulations for the performance and hope for the best! <br> * This region is also moderately dense, with a few participants rising through, akin to the fallers in region R2|\n| R4 |  * This region is similar to R2, but occurs outside of the medal zone and illustrates a fall off the perch in the private leaderboard |\n\n### Analysis of the top 10% teams for stability\n\n| Medal zone label | Last rank  | Comments | Stability Ratio | \n| --- | --- | ----- | ----------------- | \n| Gold medal   |  17 | * Stable teams =   17 <br> * Entering from below =  0 | 17/ 17 = 1.00 | \n| Silver medal  | 187 | * Stable teams = 142 <br> * Entering from below = 27 <br> * Entering from above = 0 | 142 / 170 = 83.53% | \n| Bronze medal  | 375| * Stable teams = 82  <br> * Entering from below =  93 <br> * Entering from above = 13  |  82 / 188 = 43.62% | \n\n## Other adjutant observations\n\n| Observation | Previous update  | Current update | \n| --- | --- | ---- | \n| * Highest upward movement across the leaderboards - overall | 2118 | 1536  | \n| * Highest downward movement across the leaderboards - overall |  462 | 3016 | \n| * Highest upward movement across the leaderboards in R1 region |245 | 148 | \n| * Highest downward movement across the leaderboards and finishing in R1 | 65|215| \n\n<br>Finally, wishing you the best for the future updates, happy learning and best regards! For those in R2, please note that we have a number of updates remaining and you could still make it across the 2 months remaining!\n\nAll the best!\n\nRegards,\nRavi Ramakrishnan",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "3201228",
      "postDate": "05/13/2025 15:15:27",
      "content": "<p>IT is not stable for same scores on leaderboard.    Last time I was in bronze. This time I fell out. </p>\n<p>same score with bronze score from 316 to none bronze 613.  </p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "IT is not stable for same scores on leaderboard.    Last time I was in bronze. This time I fell out. \n\nsame score with bronze score from 316 to none bronze 613.",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "3201526",
      "postDate": "05/14/2025 02:18:43",
      "content": "<p>I wonder how many more updates left?</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "I wonder how many more updates left?",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "3201553",
      "postDate": "05/14/2025 03:50:48",
      "content": "<p>I guess two. June and July.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "I guess two. June and July.",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "3201608",
      "postDate": "05/14/2025 06:17:41",
      "content": "<p>May and June , looks like the whole leaderboard has cooled down.😆</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "May and June , looks like the whole leaderboard has cooled down.😆",
      "votes": null
    }
  ],
  "comments": [
    {
      "id": 3201228,
      "author_name": "dragonzhang",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "05/13/2025 15:15:27",
      "content": "<p>IT is not stable for same scores on leaderboard.    Last time I was in bronze. This time I fell out. </p>\n<p>same score with bronze score from 316 to none bronze 613.  </p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 3201526,
      "author_name": "zhangyue199",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "05/14/2025 02:18:43",
      "content": "<p>I wonder how many more updates left?</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": [
        {
          "id": 3201553,
          "author_name": "yich723",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "05/14/2025 03:50:48",
          "content": "<p>I guess two. June and July.</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        },
        {
          "id": 3201608,
          "author_name": "wayne127",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "05/14/2025 06:17:41",
          "content": "<p>May and June , looks like the whole leaderboard has cooled down.😆</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "raw_markdown_by_id": {
    "3200612": "Hello all,\n\nWe have a leaderboard update as on date and the figure below delves into the regions of interest, between this update and the leaderboard update from Feb-25 to Apr-25 as well.\n\n## LB update - May versus April\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fad092878ce3950247cc1975aa3783070%2FU1.png?generation=1747076376488250&alt=media)\n\n## LB update - May versus March\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fd4226af5a99fc2befa77ef5f1799fdb1%2FU2.png?generation=1747076413239641&alt=media)\n\n## LB update - May versus February\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2Fa56b820c63d46145516e0ff7a7a281bb%2FU3.png?generation=1747076454899757&alt=media)\n\nPast update discussions are placed here-\n- [April](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/572179)\n- [March](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/567316) \n- [Feb](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/562435)\n\nWe have a moderate level of churn across updates, especially considering the recent developments in the stock markets driven by Government policy actions. \n\n## LB update - May versus April\n\n| Region label | Description |\n| --- | --- | \n| R1 |  * This region illustrates the top 10% participants in the competition that remained stable across the 2 updates. This region is quick thick, indicating good stability! Congratulations to these participants for the stable performance |\n| R2 |  * This region illustrates the participants falling off the perch in this update from a top 10% public LB position in the previous update <br> * This is one of the key areas to consider in forecasting competitions! <br> * This region is moderately dense, illustrating that a few of the top 10% scorers in the previous LB update have fallen off the perch here! |\n| R3 |  * This region illustrates the participants rising in the private leaderboard by beating the churn! Congratulations for the performance and hope for the best! <br> * This region is also moderately dense, with a few participants rising through, akin to the fallers in region R2|\n| R4 |  * This region is similar to R2, but occurs outside of the medal zone and illustrates a fall off the perch in the private leaderboard |\n\n### Analysis of the top 10% teams for stability\n\n| Medal zone label | Last rank  | Comments | Stability Ratio | \n| --- | --- | ----- | ----------------- | \n| Gold medal   |  17 | * Stable teams =   17 <br> * Entering from below =  0 | 17/ 17 = 1.00 | \n| Silver medal  | 187 | * Stable teams = 142 <br> * Entering from below = 27 <br> * Entering from above = 0 | 142 / 170 = 83.53% | \n| Bronze medal  | 375| * Stable teams = 82  <br> * Entering from below =  93 <br> * Entering from above = 13  |  82 / 188 = 43.62% | \n\n## Other adjutant observations\n\n| Observation | Previous update  | Current update | \n| --- | --- | ---- | \n| * Highest upward movement across the leaderboards - overall | 2118 | 1536  | \n| * Highest downward movement across the leaderboards - overall |  462 | 3016 | \n| * Highest upward movement across the leaderboards in R1 region |245 | 148 | \n| * Highest downward movement across the leaderboards and finishing in R1 | 65|215| \n\n<br>Finally, wishing you the best for the future updates, happy learning and best regards! For those in R2, please note that we have a number of updates remaining and you could still make it across the 2 months remaining!\n\nAll the best!\n\nRegards,\nRavi Ramakrishnan",
    "3201228": "IT is not stable for same scores on leaderboard.    Last time I was in bronze. This time I fell out. \n\nsame score with bronze score from 316 to none bronze 613.",
    "3201526": "I wonder how many more updates left?",
    "3201553": "I guess two. June and July.",
    "3201608": "May and June , looks like the whole leaderboard has cooled down.😆"
  },
  "source": "meta"
}