{
  "id": 572179,
  "title": "April07 update analysis",
  "url": "/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/572179",
  "author_name": "Ravi Ramakrishnan",
  "post_date": "2025-04-08T05:41:41.313000",
  "votes": 19,
  "comment_count": 8,
  "views": 0,
  "content": "<p>Hello all,</p>\n<p>We have a leaderboard update as on date and the figure below delves into the regions of interest, between this update and the leaderboard update in mid-February and in March as well.</p>\n<h2>LB update - April versus March</h2>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2F58d2cef75683a35606a5b419dea6c1c2%2FAprilMarch.png?generation=1744089731877177&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<h2>LB update - April versus February</h2>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2F3f0aa02cac19532da2ad977309291696%2FAprilFeb.png?generation=1744089762190762&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<p>Past update discussions are placed <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/567316\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> and <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/562435\" target=\"_blank\">here</a></p>\n<p>We have a moderate level of churn across updates, especially considering the recent developments in the stock markets driven by Government policy actions. </p>\n<h2>LB update - April versus March</h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Region label</th>\n<th>Description</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>R1</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the top 10% participants in the competition that remained stable across the 2 updates. This region is quick thick, indicating good stability! Congratulations to these participants for the stable performance</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R2</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the participants falling off the perch in this update from a top 10% public LB position in the previous update <br> * This is one of the key areas to consider in forecasting competitions! <br> * This region is moderately dense, illustrating that a few of the top 10% scorers in the previous LB update have fallen off the perch here!</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R3</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the participants rising in the private leaderboard by beating the churn! Congratulations for the performance and hope for the best! <br> * This region is also moderately dense, with a few participants rising through, akin to the fallers in region R2</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R4</td>\n<td>* This region is similar to R2, but occurs outside of the medal zone and illustrates a fall off the perch in the private leaderboard</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<h3>Analysis of the top 10% teams for stability</h3>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Medal zone label</th>\n<th>Last rank</th>\n<th>Comments</th>\n<th>Stability Ratio</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Gold medal</td>\n<td>17</td>\n<td>* Stable teams =   17 <br> * Entering from below =  0</td>\n<td>17/ 17 = 1.00</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Silver medal</td>\n<td>187</td>\n<td>* Stable teams =  139 <br> * Entering from below = 30 <br> * Entering from above = 0</td>\n<td>139 / 170 = 81.77%</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bronze medal</td>\n<td>375</td>\n<td>* Stable teams = 79  <br> * Entering from below =  85 <br> * Entering from above = 24</td>\n<td>79 / 188 = 42.02%</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<h2>Other adjutant observations</h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Observation</th>\n<th>Previous update</th>\n<th>Current update</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest upward movement across the leaderboards - overall</td>\n<td>1329</td>\n<td>56</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest downward movement across the leaderboards - overall</td>\n<td>648</td>\n<td>3239</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest upward movement across the leaderboards in R1 region</td>\n<td>350</td>\n<td>188</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest downward movement across the leaderboards and finishing in R1</td>\n<td>224</td>\n<td>355</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<p><br>Finally, wishing you the best for the future updates, happy learning and best regards! For those in R2, please note that we have a number of updates remaining and you could still make it across the 3-4 months remaining!</p>\n<p>All the best!</p>\n<p>Regards,<br>\nRavi Ramakrishnan</p>",
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": 3173584,
      "postDate": "2025-04-08T05:41:41.313Z",
      "content": "<p>Hello all,</p>\n<p>We have a leaderboard update as on date and the figure below delves into the regions of interest, between this update and the leaderboard update in mid-February and in March as well.</p>\n<h2>LB update - April versus March</h2>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2F58d2cef75683a35606a5b419dea6c1c2%2FAprilMarch.png?generation=1744089731877177&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<h2>LB update - April versus February</h2>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2F3f0aa02cac19532da2ad977309291696%2FAprilFeb.png?generation=1744089762190762&amp;alt=media\" alt=\"\"></p>\n<p>Past update discussions are placed <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/567316\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> and <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/562435\" target=\"_blank\">here</a></p>\n<p>We have a moderate level of churn across updates, especially considering the recent developments in the stock markets driven by Government policy actions. </p>\n<h2>LB update - April versus March</h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Region label</th>\n<th>Description</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>R1</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the top 10% participants in the competition that remained stable across the 2 updates. This region is quick thick, indicating good stability! Congratulations to these participants for the stable performance</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R2</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the participants falling off the perch in this update from a top 10% public LB position in the previous update <br> * This is one of the key areas to consider in forecasting competitions! <br> * This region is moderately dense, illustrating that a few of the top 10% scorers in the previous LB update have fallen off the perch here!</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R3</td>\n<td>* This region illustrates the participants rising in the private leaderboard by beating the churn! Congratulations for the performance and hope for the best! <br> * This region is also moderately dense, with a few participants rising through, akin to the fallers in region R2</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R4</td>\n<td>* This region is similar to R2, but occurs outside of the medal zone and illustrates a fall off the perch in the private leaderboard</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<h3>Analysis of the top 10% teams for stability</h3>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Medal zone label</th>\n<th>Last rank</th>\n<th>Comments</th>\n<th>Stability Ratio</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Gold medal</td>\n<td>17</td>\n<td>* Stable teams =   17 <br> * Entering from below =  0</td>\n<td>17/ 17 = 1.00</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Silver medal</td>\n<td>187</td>\n<td>* Stable teams =  139 <br> * Entering from below = 30 <br> * Entering from above = 0</td>\n<td>139 / 170 = 81.77%</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bronze medal</td>\n<td>375</td>\n<td>* Stable teams = 79  <br> * Entering from below =  85 <br> * Entering from above = 24</td>\n<td>79 / 188 = 42.02%</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<h2>Other adjutant observations</h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Observation</th>\n<th>Previous update</th>\n<th>Current update</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest upward movement across the leaderboards - overall</td>\n<td>1329</td>\n<td>56</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest downward movement across the leaderboards - overall</td>\n<td>648</td>\n<td>3239</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest upward movement across the leaderboards in R1 region</td>\n<td>350</td>\n<td>188</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>* Highest downward movement across the leaderboards and finishing in R1</td>\n<td>224</td>\n<td>355</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<p><br>Finally, wishing you the best for the future updates, happy learning and best regards! For those in R2, please note that we have a number of updates remaining and you could still make it across the 3-4 months remaining!</p>\n<p>All the best!</p>\n<p>Regards,<br>\nRavi Ramakrishnan</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Hello all,\n\nWe have a leaderboard update as on date and the figure below delves into the regions of interest, between this update and the leaderboard update in mid-February and in March as well.\n\n## LB update - April versus March\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2F58d2cef75683a35606a5b419dea6c1c2%2FAprilMarch.png?generation=1744089731877177&alt=media)\n\n## LB update - April versus February\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2F3f0aa02cac19532da2ad977309291696%2FAprilFeb.png?generation=1744089762190762&alt=media)\n\nPast update discussions are placed [here](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/567316) and [here](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/562435)\n\nWe have a moderate level of churn across updates, especially considering the recent developments in the stock markets driven by Government policy actions. \n\n## LB update - April versus March\n\n| Region label | Description |\n| --- | --- | \n| R1 |  * This region illustrates the top 10% participants in the competition that remained stable across the 2 updates. This region is quick thick, indicating good stability! Congratulations to these participants for the stable performance |\n| R2 |  * This region illustrates the participants falling off the perch in this update from a top 10% public LB position in the previous update <br> * This is one of the key areas to consider in forecasting competitions! <br> * This region is moderately dense, illustrating that a few of the top 10% scorers in the previous LB update have fallen off the perch here! |\n| R3 |  * This region illustrates the participants rising in the private leaderboard by beating the churn! Congratulations for the performance and hope for the best! <br> * This region is also moderately dense, with a few participants rising through, akin to the fallers in region R2|\n| R4 |  * This region is similar to R2, but occurs outside of the medal zone and illustrates a fall off the perch in the private leaderboard |\n\n### Analysis of the top 10% teams for stability\n\n| Medal zone label | Last rank  | Comments | Stability Ratio | \n| --- | --- | ----- | ----------------- | \n| Gold medal   |  17 | * Stable teams =   17 <br> * Entering from below =  0 | 17/ 17 = 1.00 | \n| Silver medal  | 187 | * Stable teams =  139 <br> * Entering from below = 30 <br> * Entering from above = 0 | 139 / 170 = 81.77% | \n| Bronze medal  | 375| * Stable teams = 79  <br> * Entering from below =  85 <br> * Entering from above = 24  |  79 / 188 = 42.02% | \n\n## Other adjutant observations\n\n| Observation | Previous update  | Current update | \n| --- | --- | ---- | \n| * Highest upward movement across the leaderboards - overall | 1329 | 56  | \n| * Highest downward movement across the leaderboards - overall |  648 | 3239 | \n| * Highest upward movement across the leaderboards in R1 region | 350|  188| \n| * Highest downward movement across the leaderboards and finishing in R1 |224 | 355| \n\n<br>Finally, wishing you the best for the future updates, happy learning and best regards! For those in R2, please note that we have a number of updates remaining and you could still make it across the 3-4 months remaining!\n\nAll the best!\n\nRegards,\nRavi Ramakrishnan",
      "votes": 19
    },
    {
      "id": 3200435,
      "postDate": "2025-05-12T15:07:42.447Z",
      "content": "<p>The leaderboard has been updated for May—when can we expect your analysis? Waiting patiently!</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "The leaderboard has been updated for May—when can we expect your analysis? Waiting patiently!",
      "votes": 1,
      "replies": [
        {
          "id": 3200569,
          "postDate": "2025-05-12T18:39:12.083Z",
          "content": "<p>Thanks <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/johndoe2011\" target=\"_blank\">@johndoe2011</a> <br>\nJust doing that now!</p>",
          "rawMarkdown": "Thanks @johndoe2011 \nJust doing that now!",
          "votes": 1
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 3187408,
      "postDate": "2025-04-26T01:28:57.990Z",
      "content": "<p>It would be interesting to compare March to April also. Went from 56 to 560 and then back to 137</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "It would be interesting to compare March to April also. Went from 56 to 560 and then back to 137",
      "votes": 1
    },
    {
      "id": 3173619,
      "postDate": "2025-04-08T06:44:29.263Z",
      "content": "<p>wondering how the 1328 -&gt; 56 solution.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "wondering how the 1328 -> 56 solution.",
      "votes": 1,
      "replies": [
        {
          "id": 3173625,
          "postDate": "2025-04-08T06:49:26.603Z",
          "rawMarkdown": "",
          "votes": -1,
          "isDeleted": true
        },
        {
          "id": 3175504,
          "postDate": "2025-04-10T08:08:14.327Z",
          "content": "<p>probably  ensemble with different weights.</p>",
          "rawMarkdown": "probably  ensemble with different weights.",
          "votes": 1
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 3173598,
      "postDate": "2025-04-08T06:02:32.523Z",
      "content": "<p>same score in and out of bronze medal zone.   Is It ranked by time or further decimal?</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "same score in and out of bronze medal zone.   Is It ranked by time or further decimal?",
      "votes": 1,
      "replies": [
        {
          "id": 3173601,
          "postDate": "2025-04-08T06:09:03.293Z",
          "content": "<p>It is mostly off a public kernel and is perhaps ranked by submission time for the same score / minor score difference by further decimals for most entries in the bronze zone <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/dragonzhang\" target=\"_blank\">@dragonzhang</a> </p>",
          "rawMarkdown": "It is mostly off a public kernel and is perhaps ranked by submission time for the same score / minor score difference by further decimals for most entries in the bronze zone @dragonzhang "
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "comments": [
    {
      "id": 3200435,
      "author_name": "",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "2025-05-12T15:07:42.447000",
      "content": "<p>The leaderboard has been updated for May—when can we expect your analysis? Waiting patiently!</p>",
      "votes": 1,
      "replies": [
        {
          "id": 3200569,
          "author_name": "Ravi Ramakrishnan",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "2025-05-12T18:39:12.083000",
          "content": "<p>Thanks <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/johndoe2011\" target=\"_blank\">@johndoe2011</a> <br>\nJust doing that now!</p>",
          "votes": 1,
          "replies": []
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 3187408,
      "author_name": "LordofSauce",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "2025-04-26T01:28:57.990000",
      "content": "<p>It would be interesting to compare March to April also. Went from 56 to 560 and then back to 137</p>",
      "votes": 1,
      "replies": []
    },
    {
      "id": 3173619,
      "author_name": "MJeremy",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "2025-04-08T06:44:29.263000",
      "content": "<p>wondering how the 1328 -&gt; 56 solution.</p>",
      "votes": 1,
      "replies": [
        {
          "id": 3173625,
          "author_name": "",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "2025-04-08T06:49:26.603000",
          "content": "",
          "votes": -1,
          "replies": []
        },
        {
          "id": 3175504,
          "author_name": "dragon zhang",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "2025-04-10T08:08:14.327000",
          "content": "<p>probably  ensemble with different weights.</p>",
          "votes": 1,
          "replies": []
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 3173598,
      "author_name": "dragon zhang",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "2025-04-08T06:02:32.523000",
      "content": "<p>same score in and out of bronze medal zone.   Is It ranked by time or further decimal?</p>",
      "votes": 1,
      "replies": [
        {
          "id": 3173601,
          "author_name": "Ravi Ramakrishnan",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "2025-04-08T06:09:03.293000",
          "content": "<p>It is mostly off a public kernel and is perhaps ranked by submission time for the same score / minor score difference by further decimals for most entries in the bronze zone <a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/dragonzhang\" target=\"_blank\">@dragonzhang</a> </p>",
          "votes": 0,
          "replies": []
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "raw_markdown_by_id": {
    "3173584": "Hello all,\n\nWe have a leaderboard update as on date and the figure below delves into the regions of interest, between this update and the leaderboard update in mid-February and in March as well.\n\n## LB update - April versus March\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2F58d2cef75683a35606a5b419dea6c1c2%2FAprilMarch.png?generation=1744089731877177&alt=media)\n\n## LB update - April versus February\n\n![](https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-forum-message-attachments/o/inbox%2F8273630%2F3f0aa02cac19532da2ad977309291696%2FAprilFeb.png?generation=1744089762190762&alt=media)\n\nPast update discussions are placed [here](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/567316) and [here](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/jane-street-real-time-market-data-forecasting/discussion/562435)\n\nWe have a moderate level of churn across updates, especially considering the recent developments in the stock markets driven by Government policy actions. \n\n## LB update - April versus March\n\n| Region label | Description |\n| --- | --- | \n| R1 |  * This region illustrates the top 10% participants in the competition that remained stable across the 2 updates. This region is quick thick, indicating good stability! Congratulations to these participants for the stable performance |\n| R2 |  * This region illustrates the participants falling off the perch in this update from a top 10% public LB position in the previous update <br> * This is one of the key areas to consider in forecasting competitions! <br> * This region is moderately dense, illustrating that a few of the top 10% scorers in the previous LB update have fallen off the perch here! |\n| R3 |  * This region illustrates the participants rising in the private leaderboard by beating the churn! Congratulations for the performance and hope for the best! <br> * This region is also moderately dense, with a few participants rising through, akin to the fallers in region R2|\n| R4 |  * This region is similar to R2, but occurs outside of the medal zone and illustrates a fall off the perch in the private leaderboard |\n\n### Analysis of the top 10% teams for stability\n\n| Medal zone label | Last rank  | Comments | Stability Ratio | \n| --- | --- | ----- | ----------------- | \n| Gold medal   |  17 | * Stable teams =   17 <br> * Entering from below =  0 | 17/ 17 = 1.00 | \n| Silver medal  | 187 | * Stable teams =  139 <br> * Entering from below = 30 <br> * Entering from above = 0 | 139 / 170 = 81.77% | \n| Bronze medal  | 375| * Stable teams = 79  <br> * Entering from below =  85 <br> * Entering from above = 24  |  79 / 188 = 42.02% | \n\n## Other adjutant observations\n\n| Observation | Previous update  | Current update | \n| --- | --- | ---- | \n| * Highest upward movement across the leaderboards - overall | 1329 | 56  | \n| * Highest downward movement across the leaderboards - overall |  648 | 3239 | \n| * Highest upward movement across the leaderboards in R1 region | 350|  188| \n| * Highest downward movement across the leaderboards and finishing in R1 |224 | 355| \n\n<br>Finally, wishing you the best for the future updates, happy learning and best regards! For those in R2, please note that we have a number of updates remaining and you could still make it across the 3-4 months remaining!\n\nAll the best!\n\nRegards,\nRavi Ramakrishnan",
    "3200435": "The leaderboard has been updated for May—when can we expect your analysis? Waiting patiently!",
    "3187408": "It would be interesting to compare March to April also. Went from 56 to 560 and then back to 137",
    "3173619": "wondering how the 1328 -> 56 solution.",
    "3173598": "same score in and out of bronze medal zone.   Is It ranked by time or further decimal?"
  }
}