{"cells":[{"metadata":{"_uuid":"8f2839f25d086af736a60e9eeb907d3b93b6e0e5","_cell_guid":"b1076dfc-b9ad-4769-8c92-a6c4dae69d19","trusted":true},"cell_type":"code","source":"# # From results file:\n# Descriptive analysis of play descriptions was conducted\n# Number of reported concussions during punt plays throughout 2016-2017 (pre-season, regular season, and post season combined) = 37\n\t# Number of reported concussions in plays that involved a punt return = 29\n\t\t# Percentage of punt concussion plays that involved punt return: (29/37)*100= 78.3784%\n\t#Number of reported concussions in plays the involved fair catch= 5\n\t\t#Percentage of punt concussion plays with fair catch (5/37)*100= 13.514%\n\t#Number of reported concussion in plays that involved downing from punt team= 3\n\t\t#Percentage of punt concussion plays with downing (3/37)*100= 8.108%\n\t#Number of reported concussion plays with ball going out of bounds= 0\n\t#Number of reported concussion plays with touchback= 0\n\n#Clearly, the more punt returns that occur, the more concussions that will also occur. In addition, as the level of general player contact decreases, so too does the rate of concussions.\n\n#From play information file:\n# Descriptive analysis of play descriptions was conducted\n#Total number of active punt plays throughout 2016-2017 (pre-season, regular season, and post season combined) = 6476\n\t#Percentage of all punt plays with concussion (37/6476)*100= 0.571%\n\t#Percentage of all punt returns with concussion (29/3066)*100= 0.946%\n#Again, the more punt returns that occur, more concussions also occur.\n\n\t#Percentage of punt plays that involved a return (3066/6476)*100= 47.344%\n\t#Percentage of punt plays that involved a fair catch (1656/6476)*100= 25.571%\n\t#Percentage of punt plays that involved the ball being downed (757/6476)*100= 11.690%\n\t#Percentage of punt plays with ball going out of bounds (616/6476)*100= 9.512%\n\t#Percentage of punt plays that involved a touchback (381/6476)*100= 5.883%\n\n\t#3066 total punt plays with returns\n#Average return length (including net result due to penalties) = 5.99771 yards\n\t\t\t#Percentage of returns 6 yards or less (1700/3066)*100= 55.450%\n\t\t\t#Percentage of returns 5 yards or less (1569/3066)*100= 51.174%\n\n#Solution: If half of all punt returns go for 5 yards or less, awarding the returning team 5 yards for a fair catch would likely decrease the number of returns significantly. The returner would then likely become more likely than not to call for a fair catch, unless it is obvious that they have the opportunity for a long return. In turn, punting teams would likely adapt by increasing their rate of punting the ball out of bounds, to avoid the threat of a return or at least awarding the returning team 5 yards. \n\n#However, fair catches would then increase. And (5/37)*100= 13.514% of punt plays with reported concussions occurred during punt plays with fair catches.\n\n#Results: Since returns of 5 or less account for half of returns, and we assume teams will punt out of bounds more often, a potential decrease in the number of punt returns by 50% would result in \n#29/2= 14.5 \n#14.5 fewer concussions per two seasons, or \n#14.5/2= 7.25 fewer concussions per season from return plays\n#But (5/2)= 2.5 more concussions per two seasons during punt plays with fair catches, or\n#2.5/2= 1.25 more concussions per season during punt plays with fair catches\n\n#Thus, implementing a rule change to allow the returning team to start with the ball 5 yards ahead of the spot of where the fair catch occurred could possibly prevent 5-6 concussions per season total (pre-season, regular season, and offseason combined). But there could be a much higher number of preventions if punting teams drastically increase the amount of time in which they punt out of bounds.\n","execution_count":null,"outputs":[]},{"metadata":{"_cell_guid":"79c7e3d0-c299-4dcb-8224-4455121ee9b0","collapsed":true,"_uuid":"d629ff2d2480ee46fbb7e2d37f6b5fab8052498a","trusted":false},"cell_type":"code","source":"","execution_count":null,"outputs":[]}],"metadata":{"kernelspec":{"display_name":"Python 3","language":"python","name":"python3"},"language_info":{"name":"python","version":"3.6.6","mimetype":"text/x-python","codemirror_mode":{"name":"ipython","version":3},"pygments_lexer":"ipython3","nbconvert_exporter":"python","file_extension":".py"}},"nbformat":4,"nbformat_minor":1}