{
  "id": 93502,
  "title": "Shakeup (Phantom) Menace",
  "url": "/competitions/LANL-Earthquake-Prediction/discussion/93502",
  "author_name": "",
  "post_date": "2019-05-27T17:00:48.055565200Z",
  "votes": 3,
  "comment_count": 7,
  "views": 0,
  "content": "<p>Seeing lots of posts foreshadowing potentially huge Shakeups after Private Scoring.</p>\n\n<p>I think these \"fears\" are largely overblown for the teams close to the top of current leaderboard.</p>\n\n<p>Having participated in VSB Power Line Fault Detection (in many ways similar signal processing challenge) Challenge I can say that I understand why people expect a lot of noise in current LB results. However, I also think that the chance of getting really good (1.36-1.38 and below) LB score with garbage inputs/overfitting is rather small (mainly because I believe in what Uncle CPMP said about the curse of dimensionality in this competition). </p>\n\n<p>So IMO, the real carnage will probably happen among say 200-2000 ranks, which of course, might affect the bronze medal distribution, but probably won't alter much the ranks of Silver and Gold.</p>",
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": "537825",
      "postDate": "05/27/2019 17:00:48",
      "content": "<p>Seeing lots of posts foreshadowing potentially huge Shakeups after Private Scoring.</p>\n\n<p>I think these \"fears\" are largely overblown for the teams close to the top of current leaderboard.</p>\n\n<p>Having participated in VSB Power Line Fault Detection (in many ways similar signal processing challenge) Challenge I can say that I understand why people expect a lot of noise in current LB results. However, I also think that the chance of getting really good (1.36-1.38 and below) LB score with garbage inputs/overfitting is rather small (mainly because I believe in what Uncle CPMP said about the curse of dimensionality in this competition). </p>\n\n<p>So IMO, the real carnage will probably happen among say 200-2000 ranks, which of course, might affect the bronze medal distribution, but probably won't alter much the ranks of Silver and Gold.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Seeing lots of posts foreshadowing potentially huge Shakeups after Private Scoring.\n\nI think these \"fears\" are largely overblown for the teams close to the top of current leaderboard.\n\nHaving participated in VSB Power Line Fault Detection (in many ways similar signal processing challenge) Challenge I can say that I understand why people expect a lot of noise in current LB results. However, I also think that the chance of getting really good (1.36-1.38 and below) LB score with garbage inputs/overfitting is rather small (mainly because I believe in what Uncle CPMP said about the curse of dimensionality in this competition). \n\nSo IMO, the real carnage will probably happen among say 200-2000 ranks, which of course, might affect the bronze medal distribution, but probably won't alter much the ranks of Silver and Gold.",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "537829",
      "postDate": "05/27/2019 17:22:44",
      "content": "<p>Possible but!: \n<img src=\"http://i68.tinypic.com/200eob6.png\" alt=\"\"></p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/c/vsb-power-line-fault-detection/leaderboard\">I think thats what you call a shake up?</a></p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Possible but!: \n![](http://i68.tinypic.com/200eob6.png)\n\n[I think thats what you call a shake up?](https://www.kaggle.com/c/vsb-power-line-fault-detection/leaderboard)",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "537831",
      "postDate": "05/27/2019 17:34:49",
      "content": "<p>Edit:\nOnly 67% was private on VSB challange, so here we (ought to?) expect similiar results?</p>\n\n<p>Edit2: Maybe you should participate since I see that you tend to \"shake foreward\" +799 on VSB :)</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Edit:\nOnly 67% was private on VSB challange, so here we (ought to?) expect similiar results?\n\nEdit2: Maybe you should participate since I see that you tend to \"shake foreward\" +799 on VSB :)",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "537835",
      "postDate": "05/27/2019 17:41:59",
      "content": "<p>There's a reason its called \"shake up\" ;)</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "There's a reason its called \"shake up\" ;)",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "537841",
      "postDate": "05/27/2019 17:55:28",
      "content": "<p>I actually am, just messing with CV (will look at LB today/tomorrow) :)</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "I actually am, just messing with CV (will look at LB today/tomorrow) :)",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "538052",
      "postDate": "05/28/2019 03:43:25",
      "content": "<p>mm..  I shaked down PublicLB 9th to PrivateLB 153th and  gat no medal @VSB Power Line Fault Detection.\nIt's a little traumatic ;) </p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "mm..  I shaked down PublicLB 9th to PrivateLB 153th and  gat no medal @VSB Power Line Fault Detection.\nIt's a little traumatic ;)",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "538068",
      "postDate": "05/28/2019 04:41:45",
      "content": "<p>I shaked down a little in VSB too. :-/\nI think the author wants to say that this competition is not VSB. And the shake up will be not so strong.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "I shaked down a little in VSB too. :-/\nI think the author wants to say that this competition is not VSB. And the shake up will be not so strong.",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "542812",
      "postDate": "06/04/2019 05:36:28",
      "content": "<p>I have \"shaked forward\" in this competition too.\nNot by enough unfortunately))</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "I have \"shaked forward\" in this competition too.\nNot by enough unfortunately))",
      "votes": null
    }
  ],
  "comments": [
    {
      "id": 537829,
      "author_name": "zikazika",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "05/27/2019 17:22:44",
      "content": "<p>Possible but!: \n<img src=\"http://i68.tinypic.com/200eob6.png\" alt=\"\"></p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https://www.kaggle.com/c/vsb-power-line-fault-detection/leaderboard\">I think thats what you call a shake up?</a></p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": [
        {
          "id": 537831,
          "author_name": "zikazika",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "05/27/2019 17:34:49",
          "content": "<p>Edit:\nOnly 67% was private on VSB challange, so here we (ought to?) expect similiar results?</p>\n\n<p>Edit2: Maybe you should participate since I see that you tend to \"shake foreward\" +799 on VSB :)</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        },
        {
          "id": 537835,
          "author_name": "teeyee314",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "05/27/2019 17:41:59",
          "content": "<p>There's a reason its called \"shake up\" ;)</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        },
        {
          "id": 537841,
          "author_name": "george1986",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "05/27/2019 17:55:28",
          "content": "<p>I actually am, just messing with CV (will look at LB today/tomorrow) :)</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        },
        {
          "id": 542812,
          "author_name": "george1986",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "06/04/2019 05:36:28",
          "content": "<p>I have \"shaked forward\" in this competition too.\nNot by enough unfortunately))</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": 538052,
      "author_name": "dhaqui",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "05/28/2019 03:43:25",
      "content": "<p>mm..  I shaked down PublicLB 9th to PrivateLB 153th and  gat no medal @VSB Power Line Fault Detection.\nIt's a little traumatic ;) </p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": [
        {
          "id": 538068,
          "author_name": "sergeyzlobin",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "05/28/2019 04:41:45",
          "content": "<p>I shaked down a little in VSB too. :-/\nI think the author wants to say that this competition is not VSB. And the shake up will be not so strong.</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "raw_markdown_by_id": {
    "537825": "Seeing lots of posts foreshadowing potentially huge Shakeups after Private Scoring.\n\nI think these \"fears\" are largely overblown for the teams close to the top of current leaderboard.\n\nHaving participated in VSB Power Line Fault Detection (in many ways similar signal processing challenge) Challenge I can say that I understand why people expect a lot of noise in current LB results. However, I also think that the chance of getting really good (1.36-1.38 and below) LB score with garbage inputs/overfitting is rather small (mainly because I believe in what Uncle CPMP said about the curse of dimensionality in this competition). \n\nSo IMO, the real carnage will probably happen among say 200-2000 ranks, which of course, might affect the bronze medal distribution, but probably won't alter much the ranks of Silver and Gold.",
    "537829": "Possible but!: \n![](http://i68.tinypic.com/200eob6.png)\n\n[I think thats what you call a shake up?](https://www.kaggle.com/c/vsb-power-line-fault-detection/leaderboard)",
    "537831": "Edit:\nOnly 67% was private on VSB challange, so here we (ought to?) expect similiar results?\n\nEdit2: Maybe you should participate since I see that you tend to \"shake foreward\" +799 on VSB :)",
    "537835": "There's a reason its called \"shake up\" ;)",
    "537841": "I actually am, just messing with CV (will look at LB today/tomorrow) :)",
    "538052": "mm..  I shaked down PublicLB 9th to PrivateLB 153th and  gat no medal @VSB Power Line Fault Detection.\nIt's a little traumatic ;)",
    "538068": "I shaked down a little in VSB too. :-/\nI think the author wants to say that this competition is not VSB. And the shake up will be not so strong.",
    "542812": "I have \"shaked forward\" in this competition too.\nNot by enough unfortunately))"
  },
  "source": "meta"
}