{
  "id": 92103,
  "title": "What is the mean of the public solution?",
  "url": "/competitions/LANL-Earthquake-Prediction/discussion/92103",
  "author_name": "",
  "post_date": "2019-05-13T09:27:03.981619Z",
  "votes": null,
  "comment_count": 4,
  "views": 0,
  "content": "<p>Hi everyone,\nThere is something I don't understand:\n- I submitted a list of 0 as a prediction for the public data. It gave me a MAE score of 4.017, which means if I understand well, that the mean of the public solution is 4.017\n- The predictions from my model have a mean of 5.854. When I submit it, I have a MAE score of 1.452. Normally, according to this, the mean of the public solution should be between 4.402 and 7.306 (between 5.854-1.452 and 5.854+1.452).\nThose 2 points are not compatible. How is is possible?</p>",
  "messages": [
    {
      "id": "530612",
      "postDate": "05/13/2019 09:27:03",
      "content": "<p>Hi everyone,\nThere is something I don't understand:\n- I submitted a list of 0 as a prediction for the public data. It gave me a MAE score of 4.017, which means if I understand well, that the mean of the public solution is 4.017\n- The predictions from my model have a mean of 5.854. When I submit it, I have a MAE score of 1.452. Normally, according to this, the mean of the public solution should be between 4.402 and 7.306 (between 5.854-1.452 and 5.854+1.452).\nThose 2 points are not compatible. How is is possible?</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Hi everyone,\nThere is something I don't understand:\n- I submitted a list of 0 as a prediction for the public data. It gave me a MAE score of 4.017, which means if I understand well, that the mean of the public solution is 4.017\n- The predictions from my model have a mean of 5.854. When I submit it, I have a MAE score of 1.452. Normally, according to this, the mean of the public solution should be between 4.402 and 7.306 (between 5.854-1.452 and 5.854+1.452).\nThose 2 points are not compatible. How is is possible?",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "530628",
      "postDate": "05/13/2019 09:56:50",
      "content": "<blockquote>\n  <p>How is is possible?</p>\n</blockquote>\n\n<p>You assume that the mean of your public LB submission was 5.854, which is wrong.  You cannot know the mean of the public test part of your submission as you don't know which is the public part of test data.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "&gt; How is is possible?\n\nYou assume that the mean of your public LB submission was 5.854, which is wrong.  You cannot know the mean of the public test part of your submission as you don't know which is the public part of test data.",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "530632",
      "postDate": "05/13/2019 10:04:34",
      "content": "<p>Do you mean that the public/private split of the test data changes for every submission?</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Do you mean that the public/private split of the test data changes for every submission?",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "530636",
      "postDate": "05/13/2019 10:30:24",
      "content": "<p>It does not change.  I mean what I write: you cannot know the mean of the public part of your submission.</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "It does not change.  I mean what I write: you cannot know the mean of the public part of your submission.",
      "votes": null
    },
    {
      "id": "530641",
      "postDate": "05/13/2019 10:44:06",
      "content": "<p>Got it, thanks!</p>",
      "rawMarkdown": "Got it, thanks!",
      "votes": null
    }
  ],
  "comments": [
    {
      "id": 530628,
      "author_name": "cpmpml",
      "author_url": "",
      "post_date": "05/13/2019 09:56:50",
      "content": "<blockquote>\n  <p>How is is possible?</p>\n</blockquote>\n\n<p>You assume that the mean of your public LB submission was 5.854, which is wrong.  You cannot know the mean of the public test part of your submission as you don't know which is the public part of test data.</p>",
      "votes": null,
      "replies": [
        {
          "id": 530632,
          "author_name": "florent31",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "05/13/2019 10:04:34",
          "content": "<p>Do you mean that the public/private split of the test data changes for every submission?</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        },
        {
          "id": 530636,
          "author_name": "cpmpml",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "05/13/2019 10:30:24",
          "content": "<p>It does not change.  I mean what I write: you cannot know the mean of the public part of your submission.</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        },
        {
          "id": 530641,
          "author_name": "florent31",
          "author_url": "",
          "post_date": "05/13/2019 10:44:06",
          "content": "<p>Got it, thanks!</p>",
          "votes": null,
          "replies": []
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "raw_markdown_by_id": {
    "530612": "Hi everyone,\nThere is something I don't understand:\n- I submitted a list of 0 as a prediction for the public data. It gave me a MAE score of 4.017, which means if I understand well, that the mean of the public solution is 4.017\n- The predictions from my model have a mean of 5.854. When I submit it, I have a MAE score of 1.452. Normally, according to this, the mean of the public solution should be between 4.402 and 7.306 (between 5.854-1.452 and 5.854+1.452).\nThose 2 points are not compatible. How is is possible?",
    "530628": "&gt; How is is possible?\n\nYou assume that the mean of your public LB submission was 5.854, which is wrong.  You cannot know the mean of the public test part of your submission as you don't know which is the public part of test data.",
    "530632": "Do you mean that the public/private split of the test data changes for every submission?",
    "530636": "It does not change.  I mean what I write: you cannot know the mean of the public part of your submission.",
    "530641": "Got it, thanks!"
  },
  "source": "meta"
}